Good Friday Morning!!!

1. Question – What is the expected value of believing?

2. Thought – You are undecided about whether to believe in God. The sensible thing to do is compare the expected value of believing with the expected value of not believing – then you will know which option is more prudent.

What is the expected value of believing? If God exists, then He will grant you eternal bliss, whereas if He does not exist, you will lose a finite amount of worldly pleasure. Now, infinity minus a finite amount equals infinity. Therefore the expected value of believing is infinite.

What is the expected value of not believing? If God exists, then He may punish you with eternal damnation, whereas if He does not exist, you will gain a finite amount of worldly pleasure. So the rewards of not believing are small, at best. Clearly, therefore, prudence dictates that you choose the believing option and its infinite expected value. (Blaise Pascal in The Philosopher’s Notebook by Mark Stephens)

“Greater in battle than the man who would conquer a thousand-thousand men, is he who would conquer just one – himself.” (Siddhartha Gautama)

Good Wednesday Morning! Please think about the answer to the question before reading the answer.

1. Question – On one of your regular weekend walks up into the hills, you reach a toll bridge over a river. It is manned by a gentlemen in uniform who blocks your passage. Somewhat unusually, he doesn’t want your money. Instead, he says, “If the next thing you say is true, I will let you cross. If not, I will have you thrown in the water.” After thinking it over, you reply, “You will throw me into the water.” Can the tollkeeper keep his promise?